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Asia Most Likely To Shape U.S. Defense Policy, Scholars Say |
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(Source: US State Department issued Sept. 28, 2005)
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Washington -- Security concerns in Northeast and South Asia are likely to shape U.S. international relations more than any other transnational issue in the 21st century, three U.S. scholars testified at a September 27 hearing of the Committee Defense Review (CDR) Threat Panel of the House Armed Services Committee.
The CDR is an independent, bipartisan process that aims to identify threats to U.S. national security and will run parallel to the Pentagon's Quadrennial Defense Review, a congressionally mandated review performed every four years on strategy, force structure and resource issues. The CDR is scheduled to release a report on its findings in 2006.
Peter Brookes, director of the Asia Studies Center at the Heritage Foundation, said the security situation all across Asia is rife with major challenges for the United States -- from the rise of China to radical Islamic insurgencies in South Asia.
"A one-size military or defense policy is certainly not going to fit all of the defense and security challenges that the United States faces in Asia over the coming decades," Brookes said. "Congress and administration policy-makers must take this into account as the United States develops its 21st century force structure and defense policy."
CHINA
Brookes urged attention to China's military modernization, which includes a 13 percent increase in its defense budget and the development of a "growing defense industry" that will be capable of producing sophisticated weaponry such as submarines, destroyers and strategic bombers within the next 10 years to 15 years.
In their opening remarks, representatives Michael Turner (Republican from Ohio) and Ellen Tauscher (Democrat from California), the co-chairs of the CDR Threat Panel, also noted issues of concern regarding China.
Turner said such issues include China's increased military spending, the situation with Taiwan and China's degree of cooperation on North Korea and the War on Terror.
Tauscher observed that "labor unrest, more open political criticism from its people, government corruption, land disputes and an unsettled Muslim minority are some of the items that the communist leadership [of China] is grappling with." She added that "how China manages its domestic challenges will have a significant impact on the portion of the budget it devotes in coming years to improving its military."
Kurt M. Campbell, the Henry A. Kissinger chair in National Security at the Center for International and Strategic Studies (CSIS), supported a policy of continued diplomatic engagement with China, noting the United States had practiced a policy of engagement toward China for more than a generation to "draw it into the community of nations."
NORTHEAST ASIA
Campbell also argued the United States "must maintain a forward deployed military presence in the [Asia-Pacific] region that is both reassuring to friends and a reminder to others that we remain the ultimate guarantor of peace and stability."
"The United States must continue to revitalize our alliances with Australia, Japan, South Korea and Singapore and continue to diversify our military presence in creative ways," he said.
Brookes and Campbell agreed a withdrawal or downsizing of U.S. forces in the Asia-Pacific region could have grave implications for the security situation in Northeast Asia.
Brookes noted one consequence of U.S. troop withdrawal could be a move by South Korea and Japan to reconsider their nuclear options, thus increasing the opportunity for weapons proliferation.
The scholars also discussed the need for the United States to strengthen its relations with South Korea, citing a long partnership between Washington and Seoul and acknowledging South Korea's contribution to efforts in Afghanistan and Iraq and the recent Six-Party Talks to end North Korea's nuclear weapons programs.
Brookes, in particular, argued for increased cultural engagement between the United States and South Korea, as well as greater recognition by Washington for Seoul's support on regional foreign policy issues.
At the same time, Campbell warned that the United States "must begin to rebalance its energies more effectively between the Middle East and Asia …."
SOUTH ASIA
Addressing the growth of Islamic terrorism throughout Asia, Stephen Cohen, director of the South Asia Project at the Brookings Institution, said, "A likely source of Islamic terrorism directed against the United States could come from a Pakistan that itself slipped into political chaos or a Bangladesh that seems to be unsure of its identity."
"If Pakistan does not cohere as a modern, more or less centrist state, if the army loses its grip, and if regional separatist and radical Islamists grow in influence, Pakistan could become a grave threat to the United States and its neighbors, including Iran, China, Afghanistan and India," he said.
Cohen said the flow from South Asia of growing technical and military capabilities could extend Indian or Pakistani power to other regions where there are important U.S. interests, investments or base facilities. Over a 20-year period, the United States itself could come within range of South Asian nuclear capabilities, he warned.
He recommended increased military cooperation and exchanges with South Asian countries as well as cultural exchanges to "deepen mutual understanding."
Cohen suggested Islamic terrorists pose a threat not only to the United States but also to Chinese interests in the region, and he urged greater cooperation between the United States and China on counterterrorism efforts. Brookes and Campbell also agreed with this assessment.
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