Maintaining Bradley Fleet Rivals Spending on New Light Tracked Vehicles Worldwide
(Source: Forecast International; issued July 12, 2007)
NEWTOWN, Conn. --- The international market for light tracked vehicles remains a highly competitive and dynamic environment. In its annual analysis “The Market for Light Tracked Vehicles,” the Forecast International Weapons Group projects that the market will produce over 13,600 light tracked vehicles, worth nearly $28.308 billion, through 2016.

Dean Lockwood, a weapons systems analyst at Forecast International, notes that new production of the top two high-end vehicles – the Expeditionary Fighting Vehicle (EFV) and the Igel/Puma – will account for only 9.34 percent of all production during the forecast period. Yet, he estimates these two programs will provide 62.45 percent of the total value of the light tracked vehicle market through 2016. “For most nations, the expense associated with the modernization and retrofit of high-end light tracked vehicles pales in comparison with the prospect of new procurement,” Lockwood said.

Through FY13, the U.S. Army intends to spend over $5.89 billion on M2/M3 Bradley Fighting Vehicle upgrades. This level of armor system modernization (ASM) spending clearly indicates a long-term investment in the U.S. Army’s M2/M3 Bradley fleet, well beyond the anticipated fielding of the Future Combat Systems (FCS) family of manned ground vehicles in FY14. Indeed, according to the FY08/FY09 budget request documentation (February 2007), the U.S. Army now intends to maintain the Bradley Fighting Vehicle System in active service for another 45 years. This U.S. Army investment in the maintenance and upgrade of the existing Bradley fleet is equivalent to about 20.8 percent of the value of all new-production light tracked vehicles scheduled to roll out worldwide through 2016.

“While transparent to this market analysis, maintenance of the existing Bradley Fighting Vehicle fleet in U.S. Army service is effectively the third most valuable light tracked vehicle program on the international market,” Lockwood stated.

In terms of sheer numbers, China’s Type 90 armored personnel carrier (APC) and the Type 90 mechanized infantry combat vehicle (MICV) represent the most significant light tracked vehicle production runs of the forecast period. As the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) standardizes its mechanized forces around the Type 90 APC and MICV, Forecast International expects that combined production of these two vehicles will account for 45.44 percent of all new light tracked vehicle production worldwide, worth 9.05 percent of the market, through 2016.

Although the light tracked vehicles in service today are all products of the Cold War, they are far from relics destined for the scrap heap. Since the U.S. 3rd Infantry Division (Mechanized) executed its Thunder Run to Baghdad in 2003, the light tracked vehicle has soldiered on as a significant force multiplier on the modern asymmetric battlefield.

Forecast International, Inc., is a leading provider of Market Intelligence and Analysis in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics. Based in Newtown, Conn., USA, Forecast International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and market assessments used by strategic planners, marketing professionals, military organizations, and governments worldwide.


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