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Teal Group Predicts 627 Military Transports Worth $38.1 Billion Will be Built In 1999-2008 Decade

;DUBAI, United Arab Emirates--- A total of 627 military transports valued at $38.1 billion are expected to be built throughout the world in the 1999-2008 decade, predict Teal Group analysts in their latest military transport forecast released today at the Dubai 2000, the Sixth International Aerospace Exhibition taking place this week in the United Arab Emirates.

The new Teal forecast notes that international demand for military airlift continues to be disappointing, with an embarrassingly high ratio of talk to action. So, when long-range high-capacity lift is needed, it is borrowed from the U.S. Air Force, further highlighting NATO country reliance on the U.S. for strategic requirements.

"Due to the European neglect of transport requirements, the two U.S. prime contractors (Boeing and Lockheed Martin) almost monopolize the world transport market, and will continue to do so,'' said Richard Aboulafia, lead analyst for Teal Group's World Military and Civil Aircraft Briefing, the competitive intelligence service in which the new military transport forecast has just been published.

"The Boeing C-17 and Lockheed Martin C-130 military transports will have 93% of the market in terms of dollar value through our forecast period.''

The Teal forecast notes that aside from finding the money, European countries need to deal with the techno-nationalist dimension of the airlift debate. The answer to European mobility requirements is acquisition of off- the-shelf aircraft, which have already had their non-recurring costs covered and can be purchased in small, incremental numbers.

"European countries should acquire mixed fleets of C-17s, C-130Js, converted Airbuses, and smaller aircraft,'' said Aboulafia. "But most of these are U.S.-built products.''

"The Airbus Military Company A400M is essentially the problem to this answer,'' he added. "From a European standpoint, the A400M (formerly known as the Future Large Aircraft) would satisfy lift requirements while keeping jobs and aerospace design and manufacturing capabilities at home in Europe. But before Airbus commits to the A40OM's development, it is demanding a guaranteed European buy that would cover development costs, estimated at $6 billion.''

Beyond 2010, Teal analysts forecast that the U.S. market will be open again. Lockheed Martin, still smarting from its loss of this market (the C-17 is the first USAF airlifter in 40 years not built by Lockheed), wants to return to transport market dominance. The company has proposed its World Airlifter, also known as the New Strategic Aircraft (NSA). Like the Airbus A400M, this twin or quad jet would be smaller than the C-17, and would satisfy European lift requirements. It would also be aimed at the KC-135/KC10/L-1011 tanker replacement market.

"Lockheed Martin offered the FLA/A400M countries a role in the project, but were rebuffed,'' said Aboulafia. "Given the A400M's stagnation, the European countries should reconsider. A joint project with Lockheed Martin would give them acquisition to the U.S. market, which remains the only strategic lift market large enough to justify the business case for a new aircraft.''

Teal Group is a U.S. aerospace and defense market analysis firm based in Fairfax, Virginia providing competitive intelligence to industry and government worldwide.


Teal Group Predicts 627 Military Transports Worth $38.1 Billion Will be Built In 1999-2008 Decade