Teal Group Predicts 2,732 Fighter/Attack Aircraft Worth $129.1 Billion Will be Built Worldwide in the 1999-2008 Period
;FAIRFAX, Va. --- Some 2,732 combat aircraft valued at $129.1 billion are expected to be built throughout the world in the 1999-2008 period, predict Teal Group analysts in their latest world fighter/attack aircraft production forecast. The world fighter market has seen some grim years recently. But predictions of a drastic collapse in military aircraft production have not been borne out. Numbers have certainly declined -- the FY 1986 US DoD budget purchased 387 combat aircraft, while the FY 1998 budget bought 28. The current mediocre times are the result of a post-Cold War hangover -- too many planes still in service, and not enough threats. And the export market has been clobbered by two harsh blows -- depressed commodity prices (especially, but not only oil), and the Asian economic crisis. "But after the turn of the century, many countries will need to start replacing some portions of their aging fleets,'' said Richard Aboulafia, lead analyst for Teal Group's ``World Military and Civil Aircraft Briefing,'' the 1,400-page, monthly-updated competitive intelligence service, in which this and nine other consolidated forecasts plus 156 separate aircraft program reports are published and regularly updated. "Even if forces are cut by 50%, that's still a huge market,'' he said. "And we don't see Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAVs) arriving in significant numbers until 2025, or later. "So our forecast is bullish. We see the annual value of fighter production growing by nearly 70%, from $9.8 billion in 1999 to $16.5 billion in 2008 (in constant 1999 dollars).''
Other Teal forecast highlights * Average fighter unit cost will rise from $34.2 million in the last decade to $47.2 million in the decade ahead. This cost growth reflects a growing manufacturer tendency to ignore export market needs. * Much of the market's growth will be due to an end to the US and European aircraft procurement holidays. Because the European procurement holiday was longer, Europe's market share will increase more dramatically, as Eurofighter and Rafale production begins, said Aboulafia. * Regarding US programs, there is no budgetary train wreck ahead, assuming that reality prevails and the Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) is delayed until after the F/A-18E/F and F-22 programs have wound down. * Beyond 2008, the future belongs to JSF. "Assuming this program goes ahead, JSF will allow US industry to dominate this market after 2015,'' said Aboulafia. * To avoid this fate, Europe's fighter makers must join forces, either with each other or with US partners. "The danger to European industry is real and great,'' said Aboulafia.
Teal Group is a defense and aerospace market analysis firm, providing competitive intelligence to industry and government.
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Teal Group Predicts 2,732 Fighter/Attack Aircraft Worth $129.1 Billion Will be Built Worldwide in the 1999-2008 Period
