Forecast International's GAS TURBINE Forecast recently completed its annual analytical overview of the market for small propulsion turbine engines and auxiliary power units (APUs), and we provide a summary of its insight here. The market for small engines and APUs remains a buoyant one, held up by strong demands for APUs for all sizes of regional airliners and business jets, as well as by a growing standoff missile and drone market. A total of 41,511 engines are forecast to meet market demand, resulting in $6.079 billion in sales through 2009.
Honeywell is forecast to remain the small engine industry's most prolific engine producer and by far the greatest generator of revenue. The company's 131 series of APUs power the major Boeing and Airbus aircraft, and have the next-generation 737 market locked up. Honeywell's RE100 and RE220 machines are aboard important regional and business jet applications, holding challenger APIC (a wholly own subsidiary of Hamilton Sundstrand) at bay in what was developing to be "their" market.
Hamilton Sundstrand remains the largest maker of APUs for the US military, with its reliable T-62T still expected to rack up very healthy production and revenue numbers, thanks to two of the last remaining strong military aircraft programs: Sikorsky's H-60 and Lockheed Martin's F-16. The V-22 tiltrotor and CH-47F programs should help the T-62T remain at fairly high production levels, even if sales of the former two programs slack off over the forecast period. Hamilton Sundstrand's APIC subsidiary effectively challenges Honeywell in the market for APUs for regional jets, with Embraer's strong-selling ERJ series of jets likely to generate revenues even greater than those conservatively forecast at the present time (nearly 1,500 APUs generating $160 million in sales).
Williams International is once again forecast to be the major player in the engine market for air-breathing missiles and UAVs. It looked bad for Williams in 1999 after its bread-winning F107 turbofan was passed over to power the Tactical Tomahawk. Teledyne CAE was poised to become the premier air-breathing missile engine provider for the US military (dethroning Williams after years of high-volume, high-value engine production for Tomahawk, AGM-86 and AGM-129 cruise missiles). Teledyne's engine did not meet performance require-ments for Tactical Tomahawk, however, and Williams was ready with a variant of its F122 engine. Williams now has not only the Tactical Tomahawk contract, but also the contract to power DaimlerChrysler Aerospace/Bofors TAURUS family of standoff missiles with its F122. Williams stands to generate at least $280 million from these two programs through 2009, and this could well rise with further contracts.
Most interesting is the rising fortune of Pratt & Whitney's Canada engine division, which was selected to provide its PW901X APU design for the Airbus A3XX super jumbojet. While a forecast for production could not be justified as we went to press, the A3XX program represents a real break for the 901 program, which has only powered Boeing's 747-400 so far. The 901 could also power the planned stretched 747s now being defined (again). Equally interesting is that Pratt & Whitney Small Military Engines (SME) and Teledyne Continental Motors (TCM) have signed a Memorandum of Agreement to pursue teaming in areas of development, manufacturing, and technical and product support of small military engine products and services. This product line would include unmanned air vehicle (UAV) engines up to 16,000 lb. st. for US government customers. As this is an important growth market for all small engine makers, Pratt Canada is clearly not standing still.
The US military is expanding its roles for UAVs beyond the original target drone and limited reconnaissance missions of the past. Remotely piloted vehicles (RPVs) are being explored as a means of reducing the exposure of personnel to hostile fire, while maintaining or increasing the capabilities of a shrinking force structure. It is a fair assumption that UAVs will proliferate through air forces of technologically advanced nations over the forecast period, requiring thousands of small engines of all types: piston, turbine and rocket motors.
Forecast International sees Williams International as being best positioned to provide small turbine engines for the growing UAV market. Williams has a great deal of experience with small turbines, and has worked with industry and the military on UAV and weapon programs requiring turbines. Pratt & Whitney Canada clearly appears to be preparing to become a more active participant in the UAV engine market, working with Teledyne CAE, which has a great deal of experience already. Hamilton Sundstrand, SNECMA's Microturbo and Mitsubishi all have considerable experience in the UAV turbine market as well, and will also secure several UAV engine contracts over the next 10 years.
-ends-
Six Billion Dollar Market ForSmall Engines and APUs In 2000-2009
