NEWTOWN, Conn.---The air-to-air missile (AAM) market is expected to generate $12 billion in revenues over the next 10 years with the production of more than 53,000 short- and medium-range AAMs, according to Forecast International's "The Market for Air-to-Air Missiles."
"The major contenders to watch in this market are Raytheon's AIM-120 AMRAAM and MBDA's Meteor," said Forecast International missile analyst Larry Dickerson.
MBDA, Europe's new megacorporation, plans to use the Meteor as its main weapon in a campaign to unseat Raytheon as the world's top provider of air-to-air missiles. Although the Meteor will be the standard medium-range AAM on next-generation European fighter aircraft, MBDA has a long way to go before it can eclipse Raytheon.
"Key to the success of this campaign will be MBDA's ability to convince operators of not only European but also U.S. fighter aircraft that the Meteor is the superior system," Dickerson said.
If the Meteor's future is tied only to the Typhoon and Rafale fighters, the system will be doomed to perpetual second place to the AIM-120 AMRAAM. Although Eurofighter GmbH plans to manufacture 620 Typhoons between 2001 and 2014, the United States is expected to produce some 1,290 fighter/strike aircraft through 2010, many of which will be exported.
"If the Meteor is not integrated with a U.S. combat aircraft, such as the Joint Strike Fighter, MBDA will likely find it extremely difficult to meet its goal of dominating the medium-range AAM market," said Dickerson.
Europe is making a less concerted effort to challenge U.S. dominance of the short-range AAM market segment. European challengers to the U.S.-built AIM-9X Sidewinder include the ASRAAM, MICA-IR and IRIS-T. The ASRAAM and MICA-IR are among the product lines of MBDA, but the IRIS-T is being developed by an international group headed by BGT.
EADS is working to convince BGT, which is owned by Diehl (80 percent) and EADS (20 percent), to join MBDA. However, BGT has been reluctant to become part of this European megacorp, fearing its unique corporate identify would vanish within such a large organization. BGT also fears being tied to the unprofitable German missile maker LFK. Reportedly, LFK has a very heavy debt load, something that BGT is eager to avoid.
"Without greater cooperation between these firms, as well as the integration of these missiles with non-European aircraft, Europe will be unable to challenge the potential domination of this market segment by the AIM-9X Sidewinder," said Dickerson.
Forecast International/DMS Inc., is a leading provider of Market Intelligence and Analyses in the areas of aerospace, defense, power systems and military electronics. Based in Newtown, CT, USA, Forecast International specializes in long-range industry forecasts and innovative marketing presentations, including regular 10-year forecasts.
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FI Anticipates $12 Billion In AAM Sales Through 2011
