The world’s fleet, which includes both passenger (from 100 seats to very large aircraft) and freighter aircraft, will grow from 14,980 at the end of 2006 to nearly 33,000 by 2026. At the same time, some 13,772 aircraft from the existing fleet will be replaced by more eco-efficient models.
Of these, 4,412 will be recycled back into passenger service, where they too will replace an older generation model with another airline. It is also forecast that 2,901 will be converted to freighters and the remaining 6,459 will be permanently retired or withdrawn from service, where increasing numbers will be decommissioned through environmentally sensitive programmes, such as the Airbus’ PAMELA project.
Looking at this in more detail, the greatest demand for passenger aircraft will come from airlines in the United States, the People’s Republic of China and the United Kingdom. Europe will receive 24% of the total, with North America and Asia-Pacific taking 27% and 31% respectively.
In addition, the world’s airlines will require more than 6,000 smaller aircraft (with 30 to 100 seats) to serve regional demand, especially in the US and Europe.
Freight traffic is expected to grow at 5.8% per annum and, combined with fleet renewal, this will create demand for 3,778 freighter deliveries, some of which will come from the conversions and 877 of which will be new generation factory-built freighters.
Overall, this means that by 2026 the world’s airlines will take delivery of 24,262 new passenger and freighter aircraft, worth US$2.8 trillion at current list prices. Most of this business will be generated from single-aisle deliveries, while 1,698 large passenger and freighter aircraft will account for 19% of total aircraft delivery value.
This demand will require an average of 1,213 new, eco-efficient aircraft deliveries per year, which combined with the decommissioning of older generation aircraft, will gradually reduce the average fuel consumption of the world’s fleet to less than three litres per 100 seat kilometres, the standard set by the A380 today.
The Future
The environmental impact of aviation will remain small compared to other modes of transport and other sources of man-made emissions. However, Airbus and the rest of the industry is determined to minimise and even reduce the environmental impact of aviation at every opportunity, while maximising the contribution that it can make to the quality of life, to better cultural understanding, to greater learning, and to fair and sustainable economic growth.
People used to find it incredible to imagine what it would be like to fly; today, it is much more difficult to imagine a world where we can’t. (end of excerpt)
Click here for the full executive summary (6 pages in PDF format) on the Airbus website.
Click here to reach the report’s home page, on the Airbus website.
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Global Market Forecast (excerpt of executive summary)
