The Future of the Russian Military: Russia’s Ground Combat Capabilities and Implications for U.S.-Russia Competition
(Source: Rand Corp.; issued June 18, 2019)
Russia and the United States have countervailing interests in multiple areas. Since 2008 Russia's military forces have improved substantially, enabling Russia to pursue its interests much more aggressively, including intervening in Crimea, eastern Ukraine, and Syria.

Researchers analyze the factors that undergird Russian military power: societal, political, economic, and demographic. They then turn to specific ground combat capability areas, such as the maneuver ground forces, indirect fires, long-range strike, and C4ISR. The researchers expect relative continuity in the development of Russia's military capabilities but recognize that change is possible were energy prices to increase or decrease or Russia's relations with the West or China shift.

The key challenge for the U.S. military will be to develop capabilities that can enable the United States to compete with Russia and achieve U.S. interests across different regions and intensities of conflict without provoking escalation.

The report presents several recommendations to the U.S. Army, including considering how best to respond to Russia's military dominance in the near abroad and how to prepare for potential conflict with Russian forces and their proxies in the Middle East.

Given Russia's security policy and economic and demographic constraints, the researchers do not foresee Russia initiating a conflict with the West. Nevertheless, the U.S. Army should prepare to counter Russian capabilities that challenge current U.S. forces, including long-range strike, C4ISR, and rapidly deployable forces.

Click here for the full report (116 PDF pages), on the Rand Corp. website.


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