PARIS --- The French Parliament's lower house formally approved June 7 a military budget bill for 2024-30, with a headline figure of €413.3 billion ($450 billion) for a seven-year project drafted in response to the bloody Russian incursion into Ukraine.
“This bill draws on lessons learnt from a conflict between states at the door of Europe, and the decades-long fight against armed terrorism and a rise in tension at the global level,” the minister of the armed forces, Sébastien Lecornu, said in his introduction to the bill.
The draft budget law now goes to the upper house, the Senate, for approval, which the government hopes will allow promulgation by July 14, the national holiday marked by a military parade on the Champs Elysées, evoking the storming of the Bastille prison in the 1789 revolution.
While the overall amount is a 40-percent increase on €219 billion for the 2019-2025 military budget law, there will be delayed deliveries of weapons, reflecting the government’s aim to balance a perceived need for arms programs and a soaring national deficit. The Standard and Poor's ratings agency recently gave a cautious outlook on French public finance due to its debt mountain.
Parliamentarians effectively approved the government’s policy choice of support for a broad range of capabilities, notably upgrading nuclear weapons, over increasing the volume of conventional arms. That was seen as backing the “coherence” of the services over building up the “mass” of weapons and munitions, which would boost the arms industry.
The principles of the late president Charles de Gaulle underpinned the military budget bill, member of parliament Jean-Marc Jacques, a former special forces serviceman, told members of the Defense Journalists Association, a press club, on May 17.
Jean-Louis Thiériot, vice-chairman of the parliamentary defense committee, said June 7 that support for capabilities left a €40 billion funding gap for conventional forces, but in view of the constraints of the weak state of public finance, he voted for the bill.
Parliamentarians backed the draft legislation after two weeks of debate, with amendments which included boosting orders for new armored vehicles to replace those donated to Ukraine, work on a combat drone to fly with the Rafale fighter jet, and an ocean-going armed submarine drone. There will also be a study for building a second new-generation nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, to be presented to parliament in 2028.
Four hundred and eight members of parliament voted for the bill, 87 against, and 53 abstained.
A Budget Boost Due to Putin
President Emmanuel Macron brought forward the 2024-2030 military budget, curtailing the 2019-2025 program, in response to Moscow’s failed attempt to seize Kyiv last year.
Macron said June 13 2022 that France needed to rethink its industrial and operational approach, to manage a “war economy” due to the high intensity war being waged on European soil. That call to economic arms followed Macron’s failed attempt to talk Russian President Vladimir Putin out of ordering an assault on Ukraine.
The French budget bill for 2024-2030 comprises €400 billion and a further €13 billion from the sale of government assets.
The Macron administration has pledged an initial annual increase of some €3 billion, with a priority on upgrading nuclear weapons, replenishing munition stocks, and boosting service for military equipment.
Work related to nuclear weapons accounted for some 60 percent of the budget, afternoon daily Le Monde reported April 4, with modernization of warheads, airborne and seaborne missiles, and Rafale fighters and nuclear ballistic missile submarines that carry the weapons.
The 2023 defense budget will receive €1.5 billion in addition to the €43.9 billion already approved, with an increase of €3.1 billion in the 2024 budget to €48.5 billion.
There will be a further annual gain of €3 billion in each of the three years 2025 to 2027, followed by an annual rise of €4.3 billion in 2028 and onwards. Those increases lead to the 2030 defense budget of €68.9 billion, if the spending schedule were observed.
There could be further spending increases if threats arose, Lecornu said.
The spending boost will allow France to hit the Nato target of defense budgets accounting for two percent of gross domestic product by 2025.
A Range of Strategic Problems
The draft military budget risked disappointing those who sought “quantity” and “depth,’” Bruno Tertrais, a senior analyst, told April 5 Institut Montaigne, a think tank, although there was a pledge of €16 billion to build up munitions, and signalled the significance of long-range artillery, air defense, and drones in high intensity warfare.
“On the whole, it shows the choice of diversity and agility, addressing a broad range of strategic problems in what I call the vertical spectrum of threats, from undersea to exosphere, while addressing cyber and information,” he said.
Tertrais is deputy director of think tank Fondation de Recherche Stratégique and advisor for geopolitics at Institut Montaigne.
Winners and losers
While the total amount is due to rise, there will be winners and losers in the services and arms industry, with big ticket items such as nuclear-tipped missiles for the air force and an initial €5 billion for a new aircraft carrier for the navy. But the army will be hit by delayed delivery of the latest armored vehicles.
Inflation is forecast to wipe out €30 billion, maybe more.
The government has met funding commitments in the present military budget law, whereas previous administrations may have adopted a multi-year bill but failed to deliver funds when the annual budget was voted.
The draft military budget law sought to “guarantee the credibility” of French nuclear deterrence through modernization of airborne and ocean-going systems in the “logic of strict sufficiency,” the armed forces ministry said on the draft 2024-2030 budget.
The ministry’s glossy presentation document and the more detailed annex report failed to give a spending figure for nuclear weapons, presented as cornerstone of French defense. That act of omission was in contrast to the ministry’s presentation document for the 2019-2025 budget law, which said €25 billion was earmarked for modernization of nuclear arms.
The 2024-2030 budget for the airborne nuclear component funds entry into service of the ASMPA-R cruise missile, an upgrade to the air-to-ground, medium-range ASMPA weapon, and work on its fourth-generation successor, ASN4G, the ministry document said, without giving any spending figures.
There will be upgrade of the Rafale fighter jet and work on its successor, New Generation Fighter (NGF), the ministry said, without disclosing spending figures. These fighters will carry the upgraded and new nuclear-tipped missiles.
Unspecified funds have been earmarked for naval deterrence, to allow a third-generation nuclear ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) enter service in 2035, and upgrade the M51 three-stage submarine ballistic missile. There will be unspecified funds for upgrading communication links with the nuclear forces.
Funding for nuclear weapons will exceed annual spending of €7 billion when the programs hit their peak, Tertrais told Institut Montaigne.
A lack of spending figures on the nuclear weapons contrasts with the amounts flagged for other major parts of the draft multi-year budget law:
-- €49 billion for service support, a 40 percent increase. The conflict in Ukraine showed the “fundamental importance” of service in a high intensity war, the ministry said.
-- €16 billion for munitions. The wide ranging concept of munitions included ammunition stocks, with faster production of 40 mm and 155 mm shells. There was also upgrade of long-range anti-ship and cruise missiles, suppression of enemy air defense (SEAD), Aster-Mica surface-to-air missiles, Meteor air-to-air missiles, F21 heavy torpedoes, and ACCP and MMP short-range and medium-range anti-tank missiles. Munitions includes future capabilities, namely deep strike, better targeting, and remote control.
-- €13 billion for overseas territories. This includes delivery of offshore patrol vessels (OPV) for the navy, replacing an aging fleet of light surveillance frigates; the air force will receive greater strategic airlift capability; and the army will get funds to adapt equipment to tough operating conditions and more pre-positioned facilities.
-- €10 billion for innovation. This includes support for work on dual use civil-military technology, which can be applied to new conflict zones such space, deep sea, information applications, and cyber warfare. A May 17 government amendment referred to an ocean-going armed submarine drone, referring to a project led by Naval Group to build an Unmanned Combat Underwater Vehicle. The company said June 7 it signed May 4 a contract for a nine-month study on system architecture, aimed at building a demonstrator.
-- €6 billion of space funding seeks to boost French space domain awareness, with spy satellites for reconnaissance, signals intelligence, and increased communications with secure satellites, which can change orbit.
-- €5 billion for intelligence and counter-intelligence agencies. The intelligence community is seen as one of the biggest winners. Macron said in January there would be a 60 percent spending increase, with a doubling of funds for DRM, the military intelligence agency, and DRSD, the domestic intelligence agency. Macron did not refer directly to the DGSE, but the foreign intelligence agency will win the biggest share of funds, to pay for new headquarters, recruitment, and a planned pooling of agency resources.
-- €5 billion for drones. This aims to speed up the use of unmanned systems in the air, at sea, and on the ground, to detect and kill threats at greater range. There are ambitions to fly a French loitering munition by 2030, and build a naval drone to work at a depth of 6,000 meters. Lecornu’s remarks on the futility of trying to catch up in some capabilities, such as drones, sparked doubts on social media on the future of a €7.1 billion program for a medium-altitude, long-endurance unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), dubbed Eurodrone. France, Germany, Italy, and Spain back that program, led by Airbus Defence & Space.
The defense ministry’s annex report, which gives a detailed look of the draft budget law, incorrectly said there will be an order for 85 Patroller tactical drones, when the correct number is 17, Senator Cédric Perrin said April 18 on social media. And even the 17 drones will be a cut from the 25-strong planned order in the 2019-2025 military budget law.
-- €5 billion for air defense and surface-to-air missiles. This aims to upgrade anti-aircraft and anti-missile weapons, and to develop systems to shoot down drones. There are ambitions to build hypersonic missiles and European cooperation for weapons to intercept high altitude missiles. A February 15 parliamentary report pointed up the lack of French air defense, with only eight Mamba medium-range, surface-to-air missile systems, four of which protect air bases in France. Paris has said it was sending one Mamba system to Ukraine. Italy, partner nation on the Mamba’s Aster missile, has approved that.
-- €4 billion for cybersecurity. The ministry seeks to recruit specialists, tackle the spread of cyber attacks, and support companies working with sensitive material in the defense sector. There will be a center for cyber security at the élite Ecole Polytechnique university, which reports to the defense ministry.
-- €2 billion for special forces. The special forces, drawn from air force, army, and navy, are seen as among the winners, with funds for transport aircraft, 18 modified NH90 Caiman helicopters, patrol vehicles, and naval vessels for surface and underwater operations.
Funding for work on a combat drone is among the government amendments. This project is along the lines of a “loyal wingman,” an unmanned combat aerial vehicle, which would fly with a planned Rafale upgraded to an F5 version. This work on a combat drone follows on from Neuron, a UCAV demonstrator built and flown by Dassault.
Poor Bloody Infantry
The army is seen as losing out, with orders postponed after 2030 for armored vehicles in the €10 billion Scorpion modernization program.
The army has worn out vehicle fleets to replace, but has received relatively crumbs of funding compared to the sister services. The key year appears to be 2030, with deliveries pushed back into the following decade.
The service had previously lobbied for funds by adopting Scorpion as a brand name, in its drive to renew aging vehicles with the Jaguar combat and reconnaissance vehicle, Griffon troop carrier, and Serval light multirole vehicle.
There are naval programs to build costly frigates, nuclear-powered attack and nuclear ballistic missile submarines, while the air force has hefty programs for fighter jets, inflight refuelling, and transport aircraft.
A government amendment showed extra funds will be found for additional deliveries to the army, namely 38 Jaguar and 92 Griffon, allowing respectively fleets of 238 fighting vehicles and 1,437 troop carriers by 2030. The initial draft law had pushed those extra vehicles into the next decade, to save some money.
France sent some vehicles to help Ukraine meant the army needed some speeded up replacement. Eventually, the plan is reported to be a total fleet of 300 Jaguar, 1,827 Griffon, and 2,038 Serval after 2030.
The 200 Leclerc tanks will be upgraded, but only 160 by 2030, with 40 pushed back to 2035.
The army must wait to the end of 2030 to have 109 new generation Caesar 155 mm truck-mounted artillery, instead of 2025.
An initial slower delivery of the Jaguar combat vehicle was “problematic,” Perrin said April 4, as that will likely stretch out use of the AMX-10 RC. The latter is an aging six-wheeled armored vehicle with a 105 mm cannon.
Delayed deliveries of the Jaguar will lead to upgrading the AMX-10 RC, as well as the VAB troop carrier, to plug them into the Scorpion command and control network. France sent a fleet of AMX-10 RC to the Ukraine forces, as a sign of solidarity.
Deliveries of the H160M Guépard, a new joint light helicopter, have been cut to 20 units shipped by 2030. The fleet will grow to at least 70 units by 2035, the annex report said, but sets no date for the full complement of a 169-strong fleet flown by the army, navy, and air force. That helicopter deal is worth some €10 billion.
Mixed Fighter Fleet
The air force will see postponed delivery of the Rafale, with a fleet of 137 fighters by 2030 instead of 185, with the latter reached in 2035. There will be a continued mixed fleet of Rafale and Mirage 2000D, undercutting Macron’s pledge for an “all Rafale” fleet.
The total number of Rafale will be 225 by 2035, the annex report said, shared between the air force and navy.
The fleet of Mirage 2000D, with a midlife upgrade, will fall to 48 from 55 under the budget. The previous target of 55 upgraded Mirage 2000D had been slashed from 71.
In 2010, the then air chief of staff, Jean-Paul Palomeros, called for a prompt upgrade of the Mirage 2000D, which would cost €10 million for each fighter, seen as a low price tag.
There is doubt over whether the French air force will ever fly a planned fleet of 50 A400M airlifters. Although the draft budget says 35 units will be ordered by 2030, up from the previous 20, there is uncertainty over further orders to hit the full complement of 50 aircraft.
There are media reports Spain is considering cancelling orders for some 13 or so A400M, perhaps halving its fleet of the Airbus transport, built at Getafe just outside Madrid.
Delay for Frigates
The navy must wait for its full fleet of FDI defense and intervention frigates, with three vessels instead of the planned five shipped by 2030. The fourth and fifth frigates had been due for delivery in 2027 and 2029.
The navy has seen orders for the SDAM drone program slashed to eight from 15 for 2030. Airbus Helicopters and Naval Group adapted a light civil helicopter, Cabri G2, to fly as VSR-700 drones from frigates and helicopter carriers.
The navy has also seen cuts for the Albatros maritime patrol aircraft in the AVSIMAR program, with orders slashed to eight jets by 2030. The full complement of 12 Albatros, based on the Falcon 2000, must wait until 2035.
Orders for Beechcraft King Air 350 have been cut to three from eight for 2030, under the ALSR program for a light turboprop aircraft for reconnaissance and interception of radio and radar signals.
In the space sector, the third Syracuse 4C secure military telecommunications satellite, powered by electric engines, looks like it has been cut.
The navy is concerned at what it sees as a slow renewal of the fleet air arm, with the first of the 41 carrier-borne Rafale fighters delivered some 20 years ago, and the service having to wait for upgrade and replacement.
The navy’s fleet of first rank frigates remains 15 warships, comprising eight FREMM multi-mission frigates, two air defense versions of the FREMM, and five FDI frigates for defense and intervention by 2035.
The air force will receive 12 Rafale to replace those sold secondhand to Greece and Croatia.
The new generation aircraft carrier will be built over the two decades, with a second tranche of €5 billion expected in the next seven-year military budget law.
Slow As Oil Tankers
Defense budgets are like oil tankers — slow to change course — as they fund arms programs which need support over many years, Jean-Pierre Maulny, deputy director of Institut de Relations Internationales et Stratégiques, said April 4 on the think tank’s website.
What was new in this military budget law were the lessons of the war in Ukraine, he said, which included the need for France to build up munition stocks for its forces and Ukraine.
The “operational lessons” of Ukraine showed the importance of air defense, artillery, and “kamikaze” drones, he said, and the need to develop these types of weapons, which should be fast to build and easy to use, while containing costs.
The Ukraine conflict showed the importance of simpler weapons, he said. There was need to reorganize the arms industry, restructuring the supply chain, from raw materials to hiring more staff, while manufacturers sought the certainty of government orders.
“It has been decided to change the ‘tanker’s course,’ because of the war in Ukraine,” he said.
Buying Arms In Disorder
Meanwhile, on a larger perspective, there may be a shared European view of growing threat, but there was much divergence in arms procurement, particularly among the leading military powers, said Louis Gautier, former secretary general of national defense and security, a high-level government office.
France and the U.K. were following different paths, and were “guided by too many pretensions,” he said in a June 2 op ed, in Le Monde. Britain’s “return to East of Suez” lacked credibility, and French military ambitions in the Indo-Pacific were poorly executed.
Germany’s project for European Sky Shield missile defense failed to fit in with the Nato anti-missile defense and the British and French renewal of nuclear deterrence, he said, while Poland’s military looked solely to the east, to exclusion of all other threats.
There is a lack of “collective definition of priorities,” he said, with an absence of coordinated procurement of weapons.
The Eurodrone was struggling in flight, he said, the Franco-German tank project was stalled, and the French FCAS project with Germany and Spain was on borrowed time. There were questions on recent choices - why pick Sener over MBDA, “40 times more powerful,” on the strategic project for an hypersonic interceptor, or selecting Avio Aero, a wholly-owned subsidiary of GE Aerospace, a U.S. company, over the European consortium Safran/MTU/ITP, on a future aero-engine?
“We can fear a great waste of money, with everyone buying off the shelf at the same time, without a bulk order, driving up costs,” he said.
About the author: Pierre Tran is an independent defense journalist. He has previously worked for the Reuters news agency and for Defense News.
-ends-
