The Defence Intelligence and Security Service under the Ministry of National Defence and the State Security Department of the Republic of Lithuania for the 8th time presents the assessment of national security threats to Lithuania and trends in Lithuania’s security situation.
“The most significant factor to Lithuania’s national security is currently the Russian-Belarusian war in Ukraine. We can not afford to pacify ourselves that Russia is weak and losing and the danger has diminished. The Russian defeat has not yet happened, it is still not out of resources nor willingness to proceed. The weakened Russian land force component near Lithuanian is for the short-term. What Russia aims for is military domination in the region near the eastern borders of NATO regained, even though its realistic probability to achieve this would need at least 5-10 more years. Political ambitions predicated on military force present an existential and long-term threat to the countries in the region,” says Director of the Defence Intelligence and Security Service under the MoD Col Elegijus Paulavičius.
“The Russian invasion of Ukraine has fundamentally upturned the character of our intelligence and counterintelligence tasks. We have thrown capabilities at intelligence collection on the course of the war and its implications to Lithuania’s national security, as well as early warning and threat neutralization. This reality of war is reflected in the combined civilian and military intelligence threat assessment presented today. Inter alia, we present a conclusion in it that Vladimir Putin has a long-term vision: rebuilding the power of Russia that is kin to the Soviet Union or the Russian Empire,” says Head of the State Security Department Darius Jauniškis.
The Lithuanian intelligence threat assessment report highlights that despite the losses inflicted by the war in Ukraine, Russia seeks to build up its armed forces potential: it increases manpower, defence spending and poises itself for a long-ranging confrontation with Ukraine and the West. According to the Lithuanian intelligence, Belarus is a partner in the Russian aggression against Ukraine in full right. Belarus has not only provided Russia its territory for military operations against Ukraine but also welcomed a military contingent. That negatively impacts the security of Lithuanian and other NATO members as it shows that in case of a conflict with the West, Russia would use the Belarusian launchpad and military assistance without hesitation. Such an uncertainty in the security situation caused by the aggressive neighbors has and will have a negative effect on the Lithuanian national security over the next decade. Heavy capability deployment will cut the intelligence notice time.
The threat assessment report indicates that the Russian intelligence and security services have been impacted by the war in Ukraine and sanctions. Russian intelligence officers were deprived of diplomatic cover in European countries and expelled to Russia, therefore Russia has diminished capabilities to conduct human resource intelligence in Europe and Lithuania. Such a change drives the hostile services to look for other methods of intelligence collection. Russian and Belarusian intelligence services operate intensely from their territory bordering Lithuania which is a threat to citizens of Lithuania traveling to Russia and Belarus.
The Lithuanian intelligence underscores that the Russian intelligence services are constantly following military and civilian objects of strategic importance in foreign countries that has borders with Russia. That is a threat to the national security of Lithuania because the example of Ukraine proves what damage can be done by information about critical infrastructure of a country when it is used for destruction during a conflict. It is worth noting that Russian services are not just interested in classified data held by state institutions but also in open source information.
The Lithuanian intelligence states that the Russian war in Ukraine has consolidated the Lithuanian society and led the absolute majority to see Russia as a threat to national security, that is why the Kremlin turns to lone pro-Kremlin radicals in hopes to promote at least some justification of the aggression in Ukraine. Since Lithuania begun removing monuments for Soviet troops, pro-Kremlin activists have been escalating the issue of the heritage objects and seek to take it to international organisations The Kremlin has an interest in demonstrating that the international isolation of Russia is melting down, therefore its governmental bodies were looking for Lithuanian people to take part in pro-Russian foreign policy international events.
The Lithuanian intelligence warns that the amount of cyber threats Lithuania is facing has not diminished and cyberattacks can intensify any moment. The most active hacker groups acting against Lithuania are associated with Russia and China. When Moscow started the war in Ukraine, various hacker groups jumped in on Russia’s side too and started targeting Ukraine with higher intensity. Hacker groups associated with Russia are also constantly conducting cyber-attacks against the countries that provide assistance to Ukraine, including Lithuania. The spectrum of the attacks is wide: they seek to collect target information Russia needs, to undermine user access of resources in the public and private sectors, disrupt their functioning and destroy stored data.
The intelligence report discusses also the threats relate to China. President of China Xi Jinping has secured and unlimited power and eliminate political opponents, however, there is public discontent accumulating as a result of a range of issues and the Government of China strengthens the security apparatus and use repression to subdue the indications of social pressures. China demonstrates it is ready to cut through the “red lines” in its relations with Taiwan, and even though a military invasion is not highly likely, the aggressive behavior with Taiwan will only grow. China and Russia are bound together by akin interest and similar understanding of what are threats to them. Beijing supports Moscow diplomatically and informationally and helps to mitigate the effect of the sanctions put in place against Russia. In the short and medium-term perspective, their relations will become more intense but also with increasingly less parity.
(Click here for the full report, on the Lithuanian MoD website.)
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