PARIS --- Despite some official statements on the potential change in the orientation of German arms export policies, the government's own official statistics show that, in reality, no change has yet materialized. The data released for the first half of 2022 and the first quarter of 2023 draw a map of the German weapon exports which is consistent with the restrictive policy the coalition intends to pursue.
EU, NATO and similar countries account for at least 75% of German arms exports.
In the first six months of 2022, and the first quarter of 2023, the German defence industry has massively exported to EU, NATO, and similar countries, with 75% of the export licences being granted to this market segment:
In that group, the most surprising is the fall of arms sales to Turkey: only €95 has been granted! The overall figure is, however, biased for two reasons:
-- An important ammunition contract for Netherlands (€1.8Bn);
-- The on-going production for Hungary in the land systems sector, comprising main battle tanks, infantry combat vehicles and ammunition.
The beginning of 2023 has amplified this analysis:
the trend, already observed in 2022, continues.
Elsewhere, the desert…
In 2022, developing countries accounted for € 1.015.744.743, including Ukraine (€561.709.533) which weighs more than the half of the total; the Middle East and the Gulf have a very low figure; Brazil and Angola are welcome additions. In Asia, India and Pakistan are still customers of the "made in Germany," but are being distanced by Singapore and South Korea, which continue to be major customers of German defense industry.
During the first quarter of 2023, arms exports to Ukraine totaled € 497.5 million, and has been included in the Western Group (€2.18Bn); the figure on UAE (€45. 932.368) is only due to collaborative programs that Germany has eased as a small concession to its European partners.
Weapon systems or defence equipment?
Another part of the debate is not only focused on geography focused but also on qualitative aspects: after the “where, the “what.” Data show that Germany exports half of each, but 69.6% of lethal weapon systems are exported to EU, NATO and similar countries as well as 61.3% of non-lethal defence equipment. Here again, Germany applies a restrictive policy.
About the author: Alistair Davidson is a seasoned military advisor, specialist in transatlantic relations and European geopolitics who expresses himself in a personal capacity.
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