PARIS --- Beyond the battle between General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, Sudan's de facto leader and head of the Sudanese Armed Forces, and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, alias Hemetti, Commander of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) militia, the current civil war hides dispute regarding naval bases.
Sudan has 790 km of coastline, widely coveted by its neighbors (including Ethiopia, which has lost its access to the sea), Egypt, which is counting on Sudan to oppose Ethiopia, whose Renaissance dam threatens the flow of the Nile - Egypt's economic lung - the neighboring powers (UAE, Arabia and Qatar) and more distant (Turkey, United States, China and Russia), all interested in harbors facilities, gold mines and a footprint in their respective neighborhoods.
Russia was the first to negotiate a permanent naval base near Port Sudan.
The project for a Russian naval base in Sudan dates back to 2017 but was frozen after the fall of Omar Al-Bashir in 2019: this project was part of the continuity of the Russian-Sudanese military cooperation agreement of May 2019.
It re-emerged after the coup led by General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, and on November 17, 2020, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree endorsing the project to create a Russian naval "material and technical support point" in Port Sudan (see green area in the satellite image), a decree which is little mentioned in the current coverage on the war.
The preliminary document provides some key details. The Russian Navy will be able to deploy up to four warships (including nuclear-powered) and 300 personnel for a period 25 years, renewable for 10 years, on three port sites which will enjoy duty-free status (art.2.2).
Russian engineers would need three or four months to take possession of the premises and establish the minimum infrastructure necessary to operate the base, once the agreement comes into force. Article 8 allows Russia to transit equipment through the country's ports and airports, without any constraint or tax.
There is however a counterpart paid by Russia for obtaining this base: Moscow will take charge of the development of the naval infrastructures of Port-Sudan as well as their anti-aircraft and anti-surface protection (art.17.3).
Russia will also ensure the equipment of the country's armed forces as well as their upgrading. Article 17.3 also provides for the sharing of information between Russians and Sudanese on the naval and air situation in the Red Sea.
The return of the military to power following the coup d'état led by General Abdel Fattah Al-Burhane in October 2021 has, however, favored a new rapprochement between Moscow and Khartoum. In July 2022, the installation of a military base in Sudan was included in the new Russian naval doctrine. General Al-Burhan declared on the sidelines of the 77th session of the UN General Assembly that the Russian naval base project was still under discussion.
The conflict between General Al-Burhan and Hemetti can therefore be analyzed as a proxy conflict between Russia and the United States. Egypt, traditionally allied with the Sudanese army, therefore finds itself torn between its Russian ally, which supports Al-Burhan, and its Arab sponsors, which support the head of the RSF: this is a tricky challenge that will severely test Egyptian Foreign Minister Samih Shukri’s diplomatic skills.
About The Author: Timothy Arsh is a specialist in warfare and international relations, whose opinions do not involve the defense-related institution for which he works.
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