Pakistan Strikes Back

Published:

February 27, 2018

Updated:

March 12, 2025

Pakistan Air Force jets crossed the Line of Control at dawn and released laser-guided bombs against selected sites on the Indian side of Kashmir. Islamabad called the targets “non-military” and said the aim was to show both resolve and restraint. No casualties were reported at the time, yet the flight paths left a clear message: Pakistani aircraft could strike across the line and return home before Indian radar cues reached firing authority.

Two weeks earlier a suicide blast near Pulwama killed forty Indian police troopers. New Delhi blamed the militant group Jaish-e-Mohammed and, on Feb 26, answered with a Mirage-2000 raid against a hillside compound near Balakot deep inside Pakistan. That single move broke a long tacit rule that air-power must stay clear of the international border. Islamabad vowed a reply that would match the tone but stop short of broad war. At 9 a.m. local time on Feb 27 it delivered.

Ground controllers directed a mixed strike package of F-16C Block 52 and JF-17 Block II fighters that entered Indian-held airspace in three shallow arcs of under two minutes each. High-flying Erieye early-warning aircraft painted the route while Mirage III ROSE jets relayed data to shooters. Indian Su-30MKI interceptors scrambled from Awantipur, and MiG-21 Bisons lifted out of Srinagar almost at the same moment. Electronic intelligence later showed both sides switched missile seekers to active almost together, yet the first shot came from a Pakistani F-16.

Timeline of the morning

08:38 — Strike jets loft stand-off bombs toward supply dumps near Narian.
08:41 — Indian Su-30s climb into the merge while MiG-21 pairs hunt low.
08:46 — An AIM-120C-5 launched by an F-16 hits a pursuing MiG-21; wreckage lands west of Bhimber Gali.
08:48 — Indian radar claims a hit on a Pakistani jet; Islamabad denies the loss.
08:49 — All aircraft break contact and turn back to base.
09:14 — Pakistani troops detain the Indian pilot, Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman, after villagers pull him from a parachute harness.
09:35 — Islamabad releases video of the captured officer sipping tea.
10:20 — New Delhi confirms one MiG-21 is missing and one pilot unaccounted for.

Competing claims took shape within an hour. India’s foreign-ministry spokesman said a MiG-21 shot down a Pakistani F-16 before itself being lost. Pakistan’s military press office insisted two Indian aircraft fell—one on each side of the Line of Control—and that all Pakistani jets returned. Independent analysts found fragments of an AIM-120C war-head on the Indian side, proof that at least one F-16 fired from Pakistan’s own airspace. No hard evidence of a downed F-16 has emerged.

Prime Minister Imran Khan spoke at noon, offered talks, and asked India to share any usable intelligence on Pulwama. Prime Minister Narendra Modi met service chiefs in New Delhi and told parliament that India’s readiness was “complete.” Rail links across the border shut down within hours; cross-LoC trade halted; and both countries raised alert levels at forward airbases.

Financial markets in Karachi and Mumbai dipped five percent, insurance premiums for flights over northern India spiked, and dozens of civil airliners diverted west through Iranian corridors. Sirens in border villages sent families to bunkers dug the year before. Social-media feeds erupted with doctored cockpit footage, false radar tracks, and clashing hashtags—#BringBackAbhinandan in India, #PakistanZindabad across the border. Fact-check teams failed to keep pace.

Washington, Beijing, Riyadh, and the European Union each appealed for restraint. United Nations officials offered mediation, but neither side accepted outside help. Behind closed doors, diplomats in Muscat opened a back channel that would later play a quiet role in calming nerves.

Tactical lessons appeared quickly. Indian pilots learned that Pakistani fighters fired from inside home territory, forcing Indian jets to cross the line if they wanted a shot. Longer-range AIM-120 missiles gave Pakistani crews a first-launch edge, while older Russian-made R-77s on Indian flankers struggled to lock. Critics in Delhi revived calls for Meteor and Astra Mk-II missiles, for active-electronic-scan radars on MiGs, and for faster induction of Rafales already on order. Pakistani officers praised the JF-17’s data-link and the Erieye’s network role, hinting at a new doctrine built on mixed formations and stand-off weapons.

The air clash rippled through defence shopping lists. India accelerated the Dassault Rafale deal it had signed but not yet funded, pointing to the need for advanced sensors and better electronic counter-measures. Pakistan moved closer to Beijing to secure J-10C fighters with long-reach PL-15 missiles. Both states placed parts of their nuclear forces on higher alert, though no doctrinal change was announced. Satellite images from early March showed increased truck traffic at Pakistan’s Sargodha storage tunnels and a modest uptick in activity near India’s missile regiments.

On Mar 1 Pakistan released Wing Cdr Varthaman as what Imran Khan called a “peace gesture.” Indian television carried live shots of the pilot walking back through the Wagah gate. Crowds on both sides cheered, a brief display of shared relief that the crisis was pausing rather than spiralling.

By mid-March, artillery exchanges along the LoC fell back to pre-February levels, yet commanders kept air patrols on a higher cycle. The episode left the region one step closer to a possible air-to-air arms race, with each new missile or radar promising to tilt the next encounter. Civilians near the front learned a sharper lesson: modern jets can cross mountain valleys in minutes, and the first warning may be the blast itself.

WHAT’S NEW — March 2025 Update

Six years on, the dogfight over Kashmir still drives choices in New Delhi and Islamabad. A joint ceasefire statement on Feb 25 2021 cut cross-border violations to record lows, but the calm lasted barely eighteen months. By late 2023 small-arms fire had returned, and in April 2025 the LoC again saw nightly mortar bursts near Kupwara and Uri.

Technology keeps raising the stakes. On Mar 9 2022 an Indian BrahMos missile mis-fired during maintenance and flew 124 kilometres into Pakistani territory before crashing near Mian Channu. Islamabad filed a protest and placed its air-defence network on hair-trigger status for three tense days. India blamed a “technical malfunction,” fired three officers, and paid compensation for damaged farm buildings.

Procurement drives that began hours after the 2019 clash have matured. All thirty-six Rafale fighters now serve with the Indian Air Force’s Golden Arrows and Rafale Tigers squadrons, each armed with Meteor and SCALP missiles. Pakistan has received twenty-four J-10C fighters in two tranches and claims the PL-15’s two-hundred-kilometre reach deters Indian patrols near Muzaffarabad. India’s Tejas Mk1A line produced its first centre fuselage this winter, and Hindustan Aeronautics hopes to deliver the first squadron before year-end.

Unmanned aircraft are the newest variable. In early May 2025 both armies used armed quadcopters to strike bunkers along the Neelum valley, the first time drones took the leading role in a sub-continental firefight. Analysts at the Stimson Center called the incident “Swift Retort in miniature,” noting the familiar arc from political spark to limited aerial tit-for-tat.

Air-defence layers have thickened on both sides. India’s S-400 batteries near Pathankot began combat alert duty in July 2024, while Pakistan’s HQ-9P regiment west of Lahore declared full readiness last month. Each system can reach deep into the neighbour’s airspace, yet commanders admit neither can guarantee a kill against low-flying cruise missiles.

Diplomatic ties remain frosty. High commissioners have not returned to their posts, tourist visas stay suspended, and bilateral cricket is still on hold. Even so, military hot-lines buzz more often. Officers say the chance of accidental escalation now outweighs the chance of deliberate war, and routine calls help clarify alerts, test launches, and drone flights that drift off course.

For civilians along the frontier, the promise of the 2021 ceasefire feels distant. Shelling this spring forced families near Rajouri into temporary camps, undoing hard-won rebuilding work. Schoolchildren in Poonch again practise shelter drills, and farmers wait for lulls before tending orchards. Yet many shrug; the 2019 air clash taught them the next crisis could come without warning and start in the sky.

Every flight, contract, and mis-fire since Feb 27 2019 sits on a single timeline. The names of jets have changed, the missiles reach farther, but the dispute over Kashmir endures. Each advance in radar or propulsion only shortens the fuse. Commanders on both sides talk about stability, yet they keep buying tools built for rapid offense. The region remains one radar blip away from another morning like the one that began at 08:38 and shook two nuclear-armed states awake.

Pakistan Strikes Back

WHAT’S NEW — March 2025 Update

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